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Worldwide Exchange

News/Business. Ross Westgate, Kelly Evans. Ross Westgate and Kelly Evans consider the business stories that have global significance. New.

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U.s. 57, China 36, Europe 17, Us 15, Romney 12, Obama 11, Ohio 9, United States 8, Spain 7, Nissan 6, Beijing 6, Virginia 6, Colorado 4, Greece 4, Paul Ryan 4, Washington 4, America 4, India 4, Eamon Javers 3, Sandy 3,
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  CNBC    Worldwide Exchange    News/Business. Ross Westgate, Kelly Evans. Ross Westgate and  
   Kelly Evans consider the business stories that have global...  

    November 6, 2012
    4:00 - 5:59am EST  

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. welcome to today's edition of "worldwide exchange." these are your headlines. the campaign speeches, fund-raisers, they're all over. now comes down to u.s. voters. more than 120 million are expected to show up at the polls. >> and european investors are holding off on big moves. equities just edging higher led by technology stocks. >> and adecco sees hiring picking up in america.
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we're finally here, election day in the united states. before that, we have the latest pmis out of the eurozone. economy declined steepening going into the fourth quarter. the final services pmi lower than the flash. it was 46.2 was the flash. lowest since july 2009. that means the composite final pmi 45.7. the flash 45.8. french services pmi weakened, also. 46.2. so both those major parts of the eurozone economy -- >> and remember, this is a leading indicator. if you see europe doing any better next year, you have to start seeing at least this indicator bottoming. >> dollar just dipped down to its lowest point of the session on the back of that. and of course we've got in spain
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they're talking about the groth being much weaker than the government's forecast. >> even though their service might have barely picked up, but on the manufacturing side, key indicator in the business cycle, that was weaker in october along with greece's. so the decline in those economies continues to pick up speed. >> so let's get more on this. joining us is julian callow at barclays. julian, good to see you. what do you make of the pmis? >> clearly we're in a situation where the eurozone is still in recession effectively. that's the message coming from them, at the same time at a global level we are seeing some signs of a turning around gradually in terms of very depressed levels of business confidence. in particular i think we really have to look here to the united states and to china to see some stronger business confidence develop over the course of the next six months and that can maybe feed through in the case of the eurozone. of course germany is in a relatively balanced position,
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but other countries are seeing signs still of ongoing economic contraction if we look at the pure business confidence measures. and that's also born out i think by the labor market indications, as well, such as unemployment. >> does the fact that germany is seen as weakening actually make it easier for the european central bank to be more aggressive because they don't necessarily have to balance the risks of overheating? >> that's a good point. if you look at the bank lending data, you can see record rates of contraction in bank credit to the corporate sector. of course that's particularly intense in countries like spain and portugal and greece. and coming more so in italy. but at the same time, there's really, about if you look at labor market developments, you can see rate growth is running at about 1.5%. if you take core inflation but you strip out the effects of indirect taxes and government driven price rises, then that's
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rallying at around 1.4% at the moment. so the ecb really doesn't have to be concerned about inflation pressures. but of course what the ecb would like to do is do the omt, the big problem you've really got in the euro area is the asymmetry still of the monetary policy. so you could say that what i've said is an argument for the ecb doing outright qe, but i think what the ecb wants to do is the omt. it wants to get out there buying the debt of spain, potentially that of italy, as well. >> and perhaps this will open the door for that kind of action. julian callow, thanks very much. you'll stay with us for a couple more minutes. >> plenty to come on on today's show. this week's leadership transition in china, we'll get a preview of the economic data out of the country. >> and the rba leaving rates on hold and surprising many who expected them to cut rates. we'll get the dele tatails from under. >> all eyes on on the u.s.,
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we'll be in new york for an early view on election day. >> and we'll also head out to boston to find out what one strategist says the election will mean for wall street. no more debates, no more rallies, at least for, what, two weeks. president obama and mitt romney will leave their fate in the hands of u.s. voters today after a long and bitter campaign battle. national polls show obama and romney in a dead heat. although the president seems to have an edge in ohio. and tracie potts joins us live from cincinnati, ohio in the wee hours of the morning there. when do polls open, how important is ohio, and when will we start to get a sense of the
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outcome? >> reporter: the polls here in ohio open at 6:30 eastern time. so we have about 2 1/2 hours. this is one of the polling places, a local church here behind me. however important is ohio? for months we've been talking about ohio really sort of being a bellwether state, ohio being the most important battleground state. and that's because ohio has a history of choosing presidents, particularly cincinnati where i am, it's been described as really the biggest swing part of one of the most important swing states. and in terms of when we may start to get results, the polls here close i believe at 7:00 eastern time. so shortly after that, we'll start to see precincts reporting. but because this race is so close, everyone's pretty much expecting we could be here very late into the night/early morning before we have a decision, if we have a decision tonight. >> and will you be staying there to follow it? that's a long day. >> it's a very long day, but actually, we're not staying
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here. when we are done here in the morning, then we're going to head up to chicago to president obama's headquarters. win or lose, we're going to spend the evening there to follow the campaign. >> okay. tracie potts from cincinnati. thanks very much. and we'll have plenty more info on ohio later in the program. >> ohio, colorado, florida, those are the three, i think. >> i bet a lot of global investors are googling the u.s. state map this morning. there is a plan known as the fiscal cliff and automatically triggered $600 billion of tax hikes and spending cuts which would send the u.s. into a recession. >> in this animation, eamon javers has explained the fiscal cliff and gives a couple scenarios for avoiding it. >> the u.s. is barreling towards the fiscal cliff, that's when come on on 2013, mandatory budget cuts and tax increases kick into reduce the deficit by
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$560 billion. the map drawn by congress leads to automatic cuts next year of $27 billion each in defense and nondefense spending and another $12 billion in cuts to medicare. but here's what lowers the deficit most. higher taxes. all the bush tax cuts go away and a 2% payroll tax comes back. all this coming at once would put the economy in a recession. congress and the president could still take an off-ramp and avoid the cliff, but that would mean tough compromises to raise taxes or lower spending. the other alternative is to continue down the road of trillion dollar plus achnnual defici deficits. but both sides agree that's a bad direction for the country. >> so julian, which direction are we going to go in? >> on the politics, you mean? i'd rather talk about economics. but what's interesting for me is that this is actually very
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close, of course. what i do hope is that it does resolve some of the uncertainty because i think there is evidence that the political uncertainty has been bearing down both on financial market confidence and on the real economy. we know that the u.s. business sector actually has still very strong cash balances and we know the housing market is getting better signs of traction. and we can see that there is quite good job creation. so things are generally going in the right direction for the real economy and the key question really is whether the public and political institutions can now give a horizon of greater clarity which will enable investors to hire with more confidence and i think the rest of the world is looking carefully at this. you mentioned china and i think those developments will also be important for how global
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business confidence performs. but the u.s. is something that europe will very much be dependent upon. and in general if we can get a clear out, then we know what the popular view is the people would have limited their verdict to the united states and that can perhaps galvanize congress to giving the u.s. business sector some greater clarification over things like the fiscal cliff and regulation. the fiscal cliff of course is important. in total it amounts to about 4% of the u.s. gdp. at the end of the day, there will be negotiations and you probably end up with something which at most i think would be 1.5% of gdp of fiscal consolidation appearing in the first half of next year. but that would still be a lot. it could be diluted down. a lot depends on the results that we will get and let's hope that we get clear results and we don't run into a situation where
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we're looking at legal challenges and prolonged uncertainty on that front. because there will still be a lot of uncertainty over how the next congress will be engaging in the negotiations on the fiscal side. >> on to that point, your house view is that it's more likely about if obama is reelected that the u.s. goes over the cliff basically because tax rates go up and it will be easier for him to bring them down, easier for the gop to turn around and say it's bringing them down because a lot of members have pledged not to let rates go up. but you say if this happens, could you see the ten year rally to 1.5%, the market could selloff. are people understemting t stee impact of this event if obama is reelected? >> that is very much our house view. we do think that there will be certainly some greater degree of fiscal consolidation in the event of an obama victory. but of course it does depend on
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the nature of the congress, when what kind of signals the politicians will take from the popular vote here. it will be a difficult time and of course we have to watch out how the rating agencies are going to be analyzing the situation as well going forward. but what is especially clear is really that we should be getting some kind of clarity here, some kind of agree when you say the pressures are building up here because we're starting to see the automatic sequestration start to loom large in trms of the economic outlook and also of course the next congress does need to at least extend some of the expiring fiscal measures which would almost to a lot of fiscal consolidation. >> to seate see the g-20 focusi much on on the fiscal cliff when there are so many issues.
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julian, thanks. cnbc will have you covered from head to toe for election day with up to the second results and analysis and reports from the key battle ground states. special coverage will start at 5:00 p.m. eastern time. slim gains for european stocks. around about 7:3. yesterday the ftse and dax down around half a percent. off of the session high. xetra dax up a third. a number of stocks have reported this morning. bmw beat expectations. they expect to earn a record amount this year.
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marks and spencer, stock is up. they talk about a weakness in clothing. adecco, they see a hiring pick up in the u.s. helping to offset the crippling weakness in the eurozone. and hanover beating forecasts saying it will be able to absorb damage claims from sandy without effecting its annual disaster budget. on the currency markets, aussie dollar 1.0423. rba keeping rates steady. dollar-yen slightly weaker, but still above 80. euro-dollar out of the 1.28 range that we've been trading in.
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that's where we stand on the european trade. on the day of the u.s. elections, let's get over to singapore. >> asian markets finished on a mixed note. the shanghai composite recouped early losses to close down by 0.4%. developers took a beating after data showed housing prices in the small business hub dropped 16% on on year. but shale gas producers surged on a new subsidy program. concerns over money laundering charges with the hsbc. nikkei finished lower as a stronger yen hurt exporters. nissan lost 2% ahead of earnings after morgan stanley slashed its price target. after the bell, the carmaker cut
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its full year forecasts as sales tumbled in china. the kospi ended higher by 1%. carmakers staged a rebound after yesterday's plunge. hyundai rallied over 4%. kia gained 1.6%.asx 200 added aa percent. aussie dollar gaining against the greenback in the wake of that rba decision. more on that a bit later in the show. the sensex still on the move now higher about 0.1% at the moment. >> okay, for now thanks. so on the eve of the election, many financial professionals on wall street believe mitt romney already has lost it. the president will be reelected. go to our website for all the
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details. do you agree? contact us worldwide@cnbc.com r or @cnbcwex, kelly undalthough t have romney supporters, they feel their man won't do it. >> wall street regardless of who it wants to win will be the first to put its money behind who it thinks will win. and we'll also take a look at how new wealth is creating challenges for china's new leaders. [ female announcer ] the next generation of investing technology is now within your grasp with the e-trade 360 investing dashboard. e-trade 360 is the world's first investing homepage that shows you where all your investments are
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as china's ruling communist party gears up for its leadership transition thursday, investors have their eyes on the latest economic indicators due out friday. expected to signal a recovery if chinese growth thanks to the fine tuning pro-growth policies. still china remains cautious about inflation. beijing fears rising prices will trigger turbulence on the domestic front as the country grapples with the widening income gap.
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eunice is following all of this out of of beijing. >> thanks so much. well, we're expecting to see falling prices for october and that's going to be welcome news for those increasingly frustrated with the wealth gap here. it will be a key challenge to the administration. >> he used to live in this neighborhood but now only collects trash here. because rising prices, he was forced to move out long ago. i've never been inside, he says, it's so expensive there. who can afford it. rita manages a property consulting firm of 70 people near by and has little regard for his plight. stop complaining. just think about how you can make it, she says. the problem is more and more people here feel they can't. when ping takes power, one of
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his biggest challenges will be how to help those left out of nation's economic miracle. fast growth has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty, yet everyone is not benefiting equally. more than 100 million people still live on $1 a day in a country that's home to the se second largest number of billionaires behind the united states. housing poor people could afford is being destroyed for the rich. with so much new construction going o going, entire neighborhoods are being torn down. chen feels there's nothing the poor can do. he moved to beijing from the countryside more than 20 years ago, but now worries about getting priced out. of course we have to move he says, here, there and everywhere to help their rote wealth gap,
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the government is constructing millions of low priced homes. but some china watchers believe she will need to push through further reforms to prevent a yawning social and political rift from lamenting further unrest. tensions could spiral if left unchecked. it can can foster an environment of discontent, she says, an environment that could one day threaten a state struggling to balance communist and capitalist ideals. the government is very sensitive about this issue, one of the reasons the officials are reluctant to talk about the finances of their leaders. >> you mentioned that even when you talk about the wealth gap, the coverage is often blacked out. i want to ask, as we're so focused on on the u.s. election, i was reading some reports indicating in china decembers spite all of these issues, the young chinese are more focused
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on the u.s. election than their own political transition. >> well, actually, that's a really interesting point. there are a lot of chinese who are net savvy and going online, and i believe to evade the sensors and follow the presidential election. and there have been interesting comparisons going on on line where people have been talking about the transition in china and the potential transition in the united states and hopefully wondering wondering at what f point will they be able to see open debates themselves. another interesting trend online has been the bashing over the china bashing. vitriol has been closely watched and people are concerned it could have a negative impact between the u.s. and china
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mainly because of what people here see as a side show issue over the chinese currency. there have been so many comment along the campaign trail about how the chinese currency is low valued and a lot of people here say that really is an unfair accusation because the chinese currency since it's been depegged from the u.s. dollar in 2005 really has moved quite a bit by about 30% aunts the trade deficit is still a major issue. >> eunice, thanks very much. it's as fascinating point that all of the coverage, the global kufsh coverage of the u.s. elections. but we'll be following that transition as it takes place over the next several weeks. and as china remains a big election issue for u.s. president obama and mitt romney even in the final days of the campaign as you can see here. >> china is both an adversary, but also a potential partner in
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the international community if it's following the rules. >> china has not played by the same rules, holding out artificially thele value of their currency. >> wilbur ross says china rhetoric carries little weight on the u.s. growth front. >> the china bashing is wildly overdone in this country. the reality is if something were to happen that cost china jobs like if they upward revalued the currency a lot, those jobs would go to vietnam, thailand, whatever country was the lowst costs. >> final word from julian callow. when you talk about china, if you what are they adding into? >> global growth is quite slow
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really. a pace of around 3% annualized rate in the second half of this year. we think that growth will be picking up next year. we think that the fed's policies are going to get more traction. we think there's the potential for some youth economic measures to come out of china once this congress has concluded and we get some stimulus on on the infrastructure side as well as supply side reforms for example. in the united states as i mentioned, we are getting increase in the housing market. so we look if that trend certainly to continue which has helped the u.s. economy in theory to grow a bit faster, but the problem then is as we were discussing, there is the fiscal cliff and quite how big that is, the fiscal dampening force, we
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don't think you would company entire will entirely over on the cliff, but we do look for fiscal consolidation which is likely to be between 1% to 1.5% u.s. gdp. so perhaps not until the second half of next year where the gdp numbers are finally going to start to look a little bit stronger. but we need to be alert to early indicators that could be coming through in certain sectors, in certain regions in the world. sfrs certain certainly china is playing its own part. so in that case certainly the weekend data from china on the industrial production will be important, but looking ahead, we have to see i think china still sharing ongoing economic resilience here and potentially then some seen of an up trend coming through in the rest of
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emerging asia and technology demand in western economies, the eurozone i'm sorry to say really negative force in terms of impact on on global economy. >> julian, thanks for joining us. chief international economist. adecco posted a smaller than expected drop in revenue in the third quarter. the world's biggest temporary firm managing to limit the fall in sales and sees better trends in the u.s. and revenue declining france and japan has stabilized. >> and the interesting question is the degree to which they see temporary staffing up turning in the u.s. or full-time. especially in light of a lot of the health care changes coming down the pike. we'll head out to brussel, we'll look at the outcome of what the u.s. elections could mean for relations with europe.
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the campaign speeches, fund-raisers, are all over. the race for the white house is now down to the u.s. voters. more than 120 million expected to show up at the polls today.
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>> and with early voting under way, european investors hold off on big moves. equities are echbdging higher. >> and falling sales in china has led the japanese carmaker to cut its full year forecasts. bank he have england is meeting this week. services pmis weaker than expected. manufacturing up 1.1% on the month, down on the year. forecast up 0.3% on the month. september also revised to minus 1.2. industrial production contracting 1.7% on on the month, forecast to contract 0.4%. oil and gas extraction posted a record monthly fall because of maintenance. that would have played a big
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part in that. and industrial production figures have a minimal impact, but -- >> you can see the reaction in sterling. and i'm sure talking about what the bank of enfland's response is going to be, several signs that are flashing warning figures. >> so we have gone into a state where we thought there would be no more qe and now i think that is more of a knife edge decision. >> and it will certainly influence the minutes. >> meanwhile today european stocks are firmer. >> and let's take a look at the bond curve. italian ten year is also managing to sit just below that 5% level for the last several weeks. yields in spain and italy are falling this morning. so a sign investors are
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comfortable with some degree of risk appetite. spain at 5.73% as the ecb says it has rectified the collateral issue that it was oversight i suppose. and bund nosing higher, gilts 1.28%. that's what's happening across the curve. >> both candidates promise dramatic cuts to the u.s. budget deficit. how big is the problem really? in this animation, eamon javers shows us three ways to think about it. >> you can look at the u.s. budget deficit three ways. first through the raw numbers lens. the millennium began with a surplus, but by 2003 with the bush tax cuts and wars in iraq and afghanistan, the u.s. was back in the red. add in new prescription drug benefits for seniors and look,
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in just bush's last year in office, we were in the hole $458 billion and then came president obama. stimulus spending helped grow the deficit to $1.4 trillion and the number has been above a trillion ever since. then there's the gdp lens, that's how much america is overspending relative to the size of the economy. from 2000 to 2010, the government went from a 2% surplus to a 10% deficit. it's the most negative deficit to gdp ratio since world war ii and it's nearly double that of the cold war years. last, the total federal debt lens which really shows yous impact. this year's $1.3 trillion deficit gets thrown on on to all the debt we've already accumulated. bringing uncle sam's overspending to a whopping $16 trillion. both presidential candidates have plans to reduce the budget deficit, but no matter how you look at it, unless huge changes
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are mark the nation's overall debt projection is only going this one direction. and that's up. >> europe has been on a deficit cutting drive. many governments have already put difficult and unpopular measures into place. strikes in greece are a prime example. should the u.s. be following this example? for the european view, we're joined by brussel's bureau chief. peter, thanks very much for joining us. huge day. you just presently heard the size of the u.s. deficit, but is what we've learned not at this point that spelling back on government spending too soon has serious negative implications? >> you pinpoint what had is the most significant difference between romney and obama administration in regards to europe. we've had over the last two to
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three years the white house and particularly tim geithner really pushing the europeans to back off on the austerity plan. they have at home done job stimulus bills. you see the imf of late make the argument. so the message out of washington is stop it with the austerity. you are forcing growth into negative areas. you're self defeating. it will be very hard for a com any administration to make that same message here in europe because as you pointed out at home, his plan, particularly the ryan plan, was very much almost german style austerity plan. something that has been advocated by northern europe on to southern europe as part of these bailouts in greece, spain, portug portugal. so hard to maintain that message that you should stop with the
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austerity, allow a little growth. so in terms of the way the eurozone views it, that change between the voice now coming out of the white house and potentially a new voice coming out of the white house in a romney administration, that's the most significant change after tomorrow. >> peter, if europe was voting, they would vote for obama. that's what the survey suggests overwhelming so. why is that? >> let's remember where we were four years ago. the transatlantic relationship was some would argue post war loans. there's never been more anger towards the u.s. than after the war. obama brought a new tenor. a lot of hoops here in europe that he would change. and he has. on libya, it was the whole leading from behind.
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he used the u.n., nato, much more of an internationalist, using the transatlantic institutions, networks that are in place to sort of bring europe back into the fold, firm up the alliance. let's remember romney did make his own campaign trip to europe. it will be remembered mostly by his gaffes in britain and poland, but it's telling that he chose britt tip and poland as places he visited. toes were two members of the bush era, both members who participated in the iraq war, full supporters of that war. is there was worry that the national would be pushed aside. particularly among foreign policy elites here in europe.
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>> peter, thanks for that. good to speak to you. >> we're also on central bank watch this week and the rba decided to hold off on further easing. this report comes from sydney. >> it was always going to be a call and it has surprised some in the market leaving rates unchanged. aussie dollar hitting session highs above 1.04 u.s. the banks did leave the door open for further stimulus highlighting the strength in the aussie dollar and saying policy is appropriate for the time being which analysts say is a signal of an easing bias. as for the move today, the rba indicating that the board left rateses on hold because of higher inflation and improvement in the global economy. recent day that has pointed to some specialization in china.
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lower came commodity prices also taken into account, the board now believes the boon will peak earlier than expected around the middle of next year. investors are already starting to price in a cut in december. back to you you. >> the aussie dollar is stronger as you can see. other story, nissan has slashed its guidance for the year. japan's second biggest automaker feeling the heat from falling sales in china. nissan's lower profits in the fr the mainland. toyota hiked its forecasts yesterday. and suzuki is given up on selling cars in the united states other than hawaii.
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what's up with them? >> hi, ross. their u.s. distributor filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection today saying it would no longer sell cars in the u.s. mainland. suzuki mostly sold small cars and full wheel drives in america, but only sold 26,000 vehicles last year. by the end of september, its u.s. distributor had accumulated $346 million in debt. it's now the second japanese carmaker to exits the u.s. car market, but it will continue to provide parts and service for existing customers. suzuki hopes to strengthen its earnings in europe. shares rose on the news, but investors are looking ahead through friday when a sue szuki
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reports earnings. and another japanese maker is planning to k3exit europe in january. they blame partly the yen's strategy. still to come, nestle has a recipe for growth. we'll find out the its ingredients from the ceo.
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debt troubles continue to steer multinationals toward kree merge memaernerging markets. we recently caught up with nestle c efeo. what did he have to say? >> essentially he's reiterating the fact that the global economic outlook continues to be uncertain. but even as far as the emerging market countries like india and china which have been the drivers for growth, and with the slow down coming in, nestle does
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1k3ek9d that to ease just a bit. be he continues to be confident and very clearly suggesting that nestle will not sacrifice margins to go after volumes or market share. here's what paul volcker had to say in this exclusive interview. >> we're in for quite a few more year. the debt crisis in europe is not something that has been built overnight, so it won't be a solution overnight either. but also the positive trecnds ae there to stay. it is a dynamic that will be positive for a long time. i'm always an optimist. i think you have to be. >> and you're hoping the emerging markets will continue to drive growth. in fact that's the difference in
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comparison because it's really been your emerging market growth driving sales for you. but i want to pick up on that because we've actually seen in asia, africa, sales down. you also believe china because of the way the chinese economy has slowed down as not delivered as per your expectations or its true potential. what are your thoughts as far as india is concerned and the emerging market in general? >> the emerging markets are really emerging. i see a refreshing embracing their own destiny that we didn't see in the past. this is a very, very strong dynamics that will come over time. we get used to double digit growths and we feel that should be the permanent way. we're speaking about growth on growth to start with and 7%, 8% is not bad.
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>> if you compare to europe, it's n it's not bad at all. >> that's an increasing important part of the world and growing 5%, 6%, 7%. when these countries are growing above 10%, you say the engine will overheat. and i think we all are a little bit nervous lately. so i try to maintain perspective and see over team. and over time, i see 08% looking for a better tomorrow and that's what we want to be part of and that's where i see potential in the future. i do believe there's so much opportunity for company in the eurozone today. it's not that all our growth came from and -- >> sure. a substantial chunk of it.
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>> a substantial part of growth will come where there's still the opportunity. >> that's the global ceo talking to me about growth in the emerging markets. and they have invested 50 billion swiss francs and setting up an r&d facilities right here in india. this will indicator of course to the global innovations as far as food is concerned. as far as the broad outlook, a 5% to 6% global growth is what they hope to do next year. so broadly tentative, but optimistic as far as the emerging market story is concerned even though china and india have seen significant slowdown from the the kind of growth rates we were used to over the last couple years. >> great stuff there. shireen, thanks very much.
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do higher income individuals pay their fair share of taxes? in this animation, steve liesman explains the truth about taxes. >> between income taxes and payroll taxes, uncle sam rakes in over $2 trillion a year. 36 about respect come from payroll taxes paid by most workers. 45% comes from individual income taxes and 12% comes from corporations. so how much of every dollar you earn does uncle sam take? well, if you make less than $10,000 a year, he takes about 1% of your total income. if you make around $45,000, uncle sam takes about 12%. and if you're fortunate must have to be in the top 1%, making an average of $1.5 million a year, you're tossing about 20% to uncle sam. but is each group paying it fair share? the richest of the rich, the top
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0.1% of earners, are responsible for filling about 13% of uncle sam's tax pocket. and when you expand to just the top 1% of earner, they fill to about 26%. and when you include the top 20%, whose average income is about $250,000, their responsible for filling about 70% of the pocket. but then consider america's income distribution. that same top 20% of taxpayers takes in about 55% of the nation's income. but year after year, the wealthiest are seeing bigger and bigger increases in income than the middle class whose income stays relatively flat. >> so top 20% pay 70% of the income tax and take 55% of the income. so okay. >> disproportion that the amount. >> we were talking about whether they pay fair taxes or not. >> believe me, given the fiscal
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cliff looming, this debate is going to define the next -- i would like to see only three months, but if we get an extension, it will confine things until it's resolved. >> and talking about stats, we have more stats here. for example did you know obama and romney visited ohio, the key state, 80 times combined. >> including yesterday. >> including yesterday. i don't know how long they fly in and out. here's the other thing. we talked about this with peter. if open to monday americans, bam would be the winner. >> it's certainly the case whenever i ask people or often i'm asked being an american about the elections and whether it's a ax city driver or someone who i'm crossing paths with, they'll often voice their support for bal. they think he's better for the way that america comes off. but it's willing because we've
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seen some of the columnists in response saying people have overlooked mitt romney or treated him too unfairly in the british press. >> a lot was the hangover from bush. and this i particularly like, the two candidates, party committees and supporting interest groups have run in total 1,015,000 television ads just from june the 1st to october the 29th. these are numbers june to october. >> when i was briefly in virginia last month which is considered one of the swing states, not even nearly as bad as ohio, the phone calls, the television ads, it's in-says aunt. people this ohio, they might be drin crazy at this point. and the fact that their state
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has wound up yet again being so crucial. it's not as if this all happened and ohio was clearly in one camp or the other. if anything, in has reiterated just how important it is to be resolved. >> and then you can see -- the good news is we are in the media and we like advertising spending. >> i think it makes people turn the tv off. it's actually the 5.8 billion figure which is according to one stemt how much has been spent in total on this election. >> it is an extraordinary amount of money when you consider the deficit. meanwhile on the eve of the election, many financial professionals now believe mitt romney probably won't win it. according to a report on c increases.co cnbc.com, the message is universal that the president will be reelected. give us your views. if you're a romney supporter, do you feel maybe he's still pot going to edge? >> is wall street jumping the gun. john carney piece definitely worth checking out. and another wall street type
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dennis gartman maintains that people are underestimating romney's likelihood of taking this because the obama turnout just isn't there and romney supporters will be more -- >> and if the latest poll suggests obama will win, there's less incentive for the obama supporters to get out. gasoli . we'll take a short break. still to cork plenty more on the countdown to today's u.s. election.
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welcome to "worldwide exchange"s. these are your headlines. the campaign speeches, and fund-raisers are over and the race comes down to u.s. voters with more than 120 million expected to show up to the polls. >> european investors are holding off on big moves. equities edging higher. >> and adecco manages to post solid numbers. they see hiring pickup in the u.s. >> you may have thought this day
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would never come. but here it is. >> the u.s. election day. >> investors around the world are saying we're not doing anything, we're waiting to see what's happening with the results. >> and even in china where they have their own leadership transition this week, there are reports that can omplain can't have a comparison. >> it was a long and bitter campaign sometimes for the white house. at least 120 million americans expected to vote. they're in a dead heat although the president does have a slight edge in some of the key swing states, most notably ohio, that could give him the necessary 270
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electoral votes to secure a second term. meanwhile the vote is in and it's a tie. residents in the tiny new hampshire village of diksville. eached a five votes. 80 miles away, the president won easily with 23 votes to 9 for romney, the between towns have enjoyed hair first in the thags vote status since 1948. >> gary johnson did get one vote up there in the third party candidate. in any case, the first polls will begin to close at 7:00 p.m. eastern in six states, georgia, kentucky, south carolina, virginia is the important one to watch. at 8:00, results from 16 more states. most of florida will close the
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at 7:00. the western part of the panhandle is in the central time zone, so that will close an hour later. 123 states follow at 9:00 p.m. and at 11:00, the rest of the west coast states will finish out including california. alaska will round everything out at 1:00 a.m. you can see that handy little chart there. here's another chart that gives you a sense of the official nbc projections tonight. 270 electoral college votes are needed to win and, yes, it is not the popular vote that matters. it is the lector are ral college vote that matters. 237, this is what nbc is proceed correcting currently for bal. you can see on the map the states blue are those expected to give all of their votes to
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him. romney we're projecting 206 votes. in yellow, these are the key swing states. nbc sees eight of them for the time being and the most important one probably to watch is, yes, ohio. right here. not far from virginia which is probe the second most important. maybe colorado over here, the third. but in ohio, it really comes down to the interior of the country where many of these counties have gone boy way or the other. no republican presidential candidate has won without ohio, but it's not just tradition that matters, it's also the math. ohio's delegates will matter to the actual tally and when those results come in, about if it's not clear that for example romney is winning the state, it will be much harder for him to win by getting the right kind of math throughout the rest of the night. >> that will be one of the keys. congress could have a slightly different composition come tomorrow.
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33 seats are being contested, although the democrats are expected to retain their edge in the house, everyone's running for re-election and the balance of power now stands at 240 republicans, 190 democrat. experts are projecting a maximum gain of five seats for democrats which would still put them around 20 short of what they need to take control of the house. >> joining us now is christina greer, political science professor. we're excited to see what hatches in the market, but the political science of this, what are you watching most closely? does it come down to ohio are or maybe the senate race? what are the main places to watch here? >> i think ohio is definitely a place to watch. i think florida will still be an extremely exciting state.
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virginia, colorado and wisconsin are also i'm particularly interested in. >> we're seeing an interesting divide. nate silver getting tons of media attention for putting the on odds of an obama win much higher than the polls or even others suggest. are markets right to believe an obama win? >> there are several factors obviously the past week with hurricane sandy has galvanized several voters in the way the president handled the crisis. it's really motivated many democrats and independents to really come out and rejuvenate sort of the vote. and i think -- i don't know if i'd put it as high as nate silver, but do i think that it bodes well for the president today. >> how important is the turnout, how much do you think the weather has had on hurricane sandy? >> turnout is always key. we can project -- we have been
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projecting these things and debating them for the past few months, but it all boys down to today. and i think that the situations of the united states especially in the northeast corridor are definitely voted to do so. granted there will be some individuals who just won't be able to because they aren't in their district, they no longer have homes and they're dealing with much larger issues. but i think those that are able to vote will definitely come out and vote. the main changes are actually down the ticket. so i don't think that turnout will affect the presidential race, but it will affect some of the smaller races in the northeast for lesser known candidates who are running for either house or county judge or whatever the race may be in a particular district. >> do you think if republicans do a little bit better it in the
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house than some are predicting,l that embolden them in any subsequent fiscal cliff discussions? >> we'll see. i mean, many republicans, there's a crisis in their party to decide what direction they'll go in. many republicans feel the direction is not sustainable. they recognize they have tody fe have i verse guy the party in many ways. they can't continue to be the part difference older white americans only. certain individuals within the republican party definitely want to see that. p. >> the real winner will be paul ryan no matter what the outcome, explain that. >> i definitely think that paul ryan is the winner no matter what the outcome.
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if obama and biden are successful, paul ryan is essentially just beginning his career. he's fast tracked many individuals who were older and more experienced. and for many republicans it's about 2016. and before this election cycle, republican names are chris christie, jeb bush, marco rubio. and now that paul ryan is on the seat, his name has to be included in that lens for 20167. i think the better you come is that romney and ryan don't win and ryan can just focus the next four years on either running for governor, running for senate seat, but really thinking about 2016 as a viable option for himself. >> and what will give you the first indication that maybe
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romney can pull this off? >> if ohio comes together for him, that would definitely be a huge indicator. the northeast is not really going to be a romney sweep by any stretch. it will be a nail biter. i think we will go quite late this evening. but ohio and maybe pennsylvania will serve as indicators. many people realize that florida is not going to be a surprise if romney takes it. virginia would not be a huge surprise if romney takes it. but pennsylvania and ohio would serve as a slight wake-up call and as we move west to see how things shake out say colorado and wisconsin. >> christina, thanks for joining us. it will be a long day for everybody, but a fascinating one. now cnbc will have you
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covereded frcove covered from head to toe. we'll be starting live 5:00 p.m. eastern time. you won't want to miss any of that. but in the meantime, let's take a look at markets. green is the color of futures behind me. the dow jones implied to add about 40 points at the open. the nasdaq and s&p pointed higher, too. we've come off a series of trading sessions where markets have nosed higher only to close down hard. the question is whether these levels today reflect anything but basically mixed action add of the election results. you can get a sense of the kind of activity and the bottom line is people are mostly on the sidelines. that's letting markets drift hooper. the ftse higher. ibex 35 even rallying.
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it's up half a percent. >> despite forecasts saying the recession in spain will be worse than the government thinks. bond yields, slightly firmer. ten year spanish yields still below 6%. u.s. treasuries right now steady. 1.71% is the yield we're currently on. and just to show you where sterling is, it's weaker against the dollar. well, flat. but we sea manufacturing industrial output weaker than expected. rba keeping rates on hold. dollar-yen sa dollar-yen steady. we just reclaimed the 1.28 range. we did get down to 1.2763.
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so ma composite number was closer and that dragged euro-dollar down. what about asia? let's get more out of singapore. >> asian markets finished on a mixed note. the shanghai composite closed down by 0.4%. more nick data due out later this week. developers had losses after housing prices in a small business hub dropped 16% on year. but shale gas producers powered up on a new sub susdy program. hang seng dragged low other concerns over huge money laundering charges in the u.s. and the nikkei finished lower by 0.4% as the stronger yen hurt exporters. nissan shares lost 2% ahead of earnings after morgan stanley
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and ufg slashed it price target. sales tumbled in china. south korea kospi ended higher by 1%. carmakers rebounded after yesterday's plunge overstating the fuel economy of some cars sold in the u.s. hyundai rallied over 4%. kia gained 1.6%. the asx 200 added 0.2% with banks lending support. the aussie dollar is gaining. sensex now gaining 0.3%. ross, back to you. >> meanwhile on the eve of the u.s. election, many financial 1k3er7
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experts believe mitt romney may not be winning. head to our website for all the details. join us in the the conversation. coming up, suzuki is putting on the brakes in the u.s. market. we'll tell you why when we come back.
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the race for the white house comes down to u.s. voters with more than 120 million expected to show up to the polls. >> investors holding off on any big moves. equities edging a little higher. >> and adecco manages to post solid numbers as they see hiring pickup in the u.s. and there is some corporate news this morning. it's not all about the u.s. election. nike is going shoe shopping. the company is near a deal to sell its shoe and handbag line to apax partners. nike seeking to focus on its name sake brand bought it in the
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1980s. last month it sold off for $290 million. now goldman sachs has added another member to its board. mark tucker the group ceo of asian life insurer. the move increases the size of the bank's board to 12, a square dozen. goldman says tucker will serve as independent director and will sit on its four board committees. goldman shares down 0.9%. >> meanwhile it's the end of the road for suzuki in the united states. they're closing its american car lots to focus on motorcycles and atvs and boats.
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>> the strong yen is hurting these automakers so much. staying with that for the time being, nissan has lowered its profit guy answer for the year by a fifth to slightly under $4 billion. japan's second biggest automaker and the's feeling the heat from falling sales in china fueled by anti-japan sentiment. nissan rakes in a quarter of global profits from china and this is much bigger than toyota which just announced a rise in its forecast. still nissan managed to post a better than expected $1.3 billion net profit in the third quarter. shares there are down about 2%. >> and adecco shares are up this morning. company posting a smaller than expected profit in the third quarter. they say they've limited the fall in earnings because of better growth trends in the united states. a pick up in hiring in the united states. also the revenue establistabili.
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>> i'm cure just to know is the job growth temporary, full-time positions. because that's two very different things. >> makes a big difference to what they're saying about that pick up in jobs hiring. u.s. agenda, is there anything other than the election today? certainly no economic data as you might expect. there are some earnings out. i have a feeling they might get swamped. cable vision, cvs, care mark, dish network, aol and news corp. >> it's interesting because for some of these companies or for companies in general when they're reporting, they don't always love the scrutiny. so reporting on election day is, that a benefit or a hurt? >> news corp would have known it was the u.s. election, so she decided to release their results on the day of election day. >> we are in the thick of earnings season. but nevertheless, it's more fun.
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>> they decided to do it on purchase on election day. coming up, how new wealth is creating new challenges for china's next leaders over the social divide. we'll head out to beijing for all the very latest. [ male announcer ] how can power consumption in china, impact wool exports from new zealand, textile production in spain, and the use of medical technology in the u.s.? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing.
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china begins it leadership transition this thursday. and economic indicators due out on friday. october data expected to signal a recovery in growth thanks for beijing's fine tuning pro-growth policies. but the policies remain cautious about inflation. beijing fears rising prices might trigger turbulence on the domestic front. eunice has more on this report. >> when the new chinese leadership takes power, one of their biggest challenges will be how to their rote wide ping wealth gap. this country has seen decades of fast economic growth with hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, but many still feel they haven't benefited in the way that they should. and that's fueling discontent in the underclass. a recent pew study found the rich/poor divide is one of the
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top concerns of the citizens here. more than 100 million chinese live on a dollar a day and that's in a country home to the second largest number of billion ai billionairs in the world. they're reluctant to talk about the finances of it leaders. >> turning to the u.s. election, controlling federal spending has been a hot topic, but social security is one entitlement the politicians remain afraid to touch. they may not be able to ignore that much longer. >> social security works as an immediate transfer of money from workers today to retirees today. and that works out just fine when enough money is being taken out of the paychecks of enough people to cover the checks going to retirees. but by 2014, age baby boomers
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create a problem. not enough workers will be there to cover them. in the 1950s, there were nine workers for every one retiree. today it's about 3:1. with extra cash going into the social security trust fund, accumulating over $2.6 trillion. but since the beginning of the program, un. >> caller: sam has been helping himself to that cash and spending it like it was his own money. while he filled the skrar wijar ious. so by 2014, the only place to get them is from the guy teamly in debt or by cutting benefits or raising taxes. >> the social security puzzle.
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stim ll to come, americans head to the polls. a view on the ground from ohio. ♪ ♪ ♪
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these are your headlines today from around the world. the campaign speeches and fundraisers are over. now the race for the white house
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comes down to u.s. voters with more than 120 million expected to show up to the polls today. >> and european investors are holding off on any big moves. equities edging higher. >> and despite persistent weakness, adecco manages to post solid numbers. they see hiring pick up in the u.s. every four years, you actually get to be a merchandise in the united states. >> what do you think happens the rest of the time? sg democracy is only when you get to vote, right? >> there are perhaps who are things we've voted on on every four years. 6,000 some elections actually happening. >> but this is the only poll
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that matters. at least 120 million americans will vote. obama and romney are in a dead heat, although the president does have a slight edge in several key swing states that might give him the necessary 270 electoral college votes to secure a second term. >> and one of the key issues is the fiscal cliff. $600 billion worth of tax hikes and spending cuts come january which most say will send the u.s. into a recession. in this cnbc report, eamon javers outlines a few a their i don'ts for avoiding it. >> the u.s. is barreling towards the so-called fiscal cliff when come 2013 mandatory budget cuts and tax increases kick in on reduce the deficit by $560 billion. the map drawn by congress leads to automatic cuts next year of $27 billion each in defense and
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nondefense spending and another $12 billion cuts to medicare. but here's what lowers the deficit most. higher taxes. all the bush tax cuts go away and a 2% payroll tax for all workers comes back. all this coming at once would put the economy in a recession. congress and president could still take an off-ramp and avoid the cliff, but that would mean tough compromises to raise taxes or lower spending. the other alternative is to continue down the record of annual trillion dollar plus deficits. but both sides agree that's a bad direction for the country. >> joining us is patrick rice. thanks very much for getting up early to joins us. i'm sure there's a mal adrenalin today. but to focus on the financial issues, is it the fiscal cliff that we're already going to be looking at when we see the results come in tonight.
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and what are the odds if president obama does take this that he'll be able to turn around and negotiate a way to avoid going over the cliff? >> well, the question is whether there will will be able to reach the compromise. over the past maybe four years ago, something like this would have seemed unthinkable. but things have quten so gridlocked that both are taking to the political brink. it seems that they'll at least create the fiscal bridge, some sort of extension and that will give them a little more breathing room. but what that looks like is anyone's get. republicans say they won't accept tax increases whereas obama has drawn a hard line over the top tax bracket. if he loses his job day, you may see more consensus between the white house and congress. >> we've seen certainly it
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prayipray playing out on wall street. but sticking with if it's president obama, the odds that he says we'll let this expire, giving him and the gop bargaining power cot the beginning of next year, look, we actually lowered taxes because we moved them back down,ot the beginning of next year, look, we actually lowered taxes because we moved them back down,t the bg of next year, look, we actually lowered taxes because we moved them back down,he beginning of next year, look, we actually lowered taxes because we moved them back down, why do investors think that's the most likely outcome here? >> when you send the economy into a recession, nobody wins. i think that looks bad for every incumbent. so i think incumbents cognizant that they will again face the voters, i think they would be hesitant to tank just for the political points. with that in mind, they'll sort of try to bridge it over and extend it out, but the idea of leverage is they will certainly be saying the only reason this is a problem is because the other side refuses to do what they'll label as totally
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reasonable. >> when all is sudden and done, we'll see what the people decide today. the economy was supposed to be the front and center here. and let's face it, 2% growth isn't the best. unemployment almost 8%. why with that view would people still be voting for the president? >> well, there's a lot of research that suggests that it's not the absolute state of the economy that people vote on, but rather the direction it's headed. and if you look at the last two years what you've seen is a grinding slow steady improvement. there's ever reason to believe that after this election regardless of who wins it's going to get better. you've seen consumer confidence hitting its high in five years. you've seen the housing market start to pick up albeit slowly. so whoever presides over the next economy will be seen as the comeback president. regardless of the policies they put in place. we tend to think of the oval
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office as this place where you can turn the dial and change the economy one way or the other. but this is the largest economy in the history of the world. so the oval office policies will have something, but not everything to do with the direction it goes. so either way, we'll see a long slow recovery. >> if you have a gridlock confidence and an independent fed, how much control does a president have? >> well, in 2009, barack obama put in place his signature economic policy which was the stimulus. there's a lot of debate over how well that worked. democrats have said it could have been so much worse, republicans have pointed out that the unemployment rate hasn't matched the lows that were forecast when they put the stimulus forward. it will be unclear if it seems most likely that the next president will inherit a gridlock congress, so it's unclear if someone will get the chance to put through sort of
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their secretary policy. so truthfully whatever happens today, i don't expect we'll see a rapid change in direction. the fiscal cliff will sort of force something, whether that's austerity or some sort of, you know, initial increase in spending and then long term flattening out. or most likely, you know, some meeting in the middle of the two sides. >> patrick, thanks for that. a long day for everybody. we appreciate you you getting up early this morning. just a reminder, the first polls begin to close at 7:00 p.m. eastern in sticks states, georgia, indiana, kentucky, south carolina, vermont and the battle ground of virginia. half an hour later, voting ends in the most crucial swing state, ohio. and at 8:00 p.m., polls will then close in 16 other states. and washington, d.c. most of florida is at 7:00. another 13 states follow at 9:00 p.m. including michigan and wisconsin. at 11:00 most of the west coast will finish up, including
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california and alaska rounds out everything at 1:00 a.m. >> and the real question is when will we be able to declare a winner. networks are more hesitant in time around, but it could be close in provisional votes could be the key here. provisional ballots. because so many people are voting early, but there are issues with if you got an early ballot and then you show up at the polls. >> legal questions have already been raised. i don't think anybody wants necessary tlily to get into tha legal challenge. but if it's close -- >> might be unavoidable. and scott cohn will join us and we'll ask him about this. but first a quick check of futures. they are higher. we're seeing a pretty positive mood in europe and the u.s. this morning. the dow trying to add greater than 40 points to the open. drifting higher, though, as people kind of wait for the election. that and he how most are characterizing the way markets feel today. >> up about the best levels of the session here in europe. the ftse 100 up.
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ibex up half of 1% despite disappointing economic data in terms of the services pmis for the eurozone and manufacturing industrial output for the uk, both of those weaker than expected p. >> and stick around, still to come on the show as we gear up for election night, we'll have all the latest from that all-important swing state of ohio.
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it's polling day in the united states and many professionals on wall street seem to believe mitt romney won't be winning it. according to a report on cnbc.com, the message is universal, the president will be reelected and this is despite that many happen to be romney supporters. let us know your thoughts, worldwide@cnbc.com is the e-mail address or @cnbcwex or or @kelly_evans or @rosswestgate. we've had a number of comments in already today. i don't know whether people like my glasses or not. but i'm focused -- i have to focus on the results later. >> has nothing to do with those eye issues. focusing on the election, that's right. and speaking of which, let's take a look at the states here at the projections that nbc has for who will take this thing as it currently stacks up, barack obama with a count of 230 votes to mitt romney's 206.
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that leaves about 95 toss ups, 270 votes of course are needed to win. and the key state at least one of them right here in gold, it's ohio. and who is in ohio but our very own senior correspondent scott cohn. he's at ohio state university in fact in columbus. scott, we want of course to get a sense from you as to the mood there, the feeling there. and it's interesting because ohio's economy is actually a little better than than the national average. how might that impact the results? >> well, it certainly has impacted the campaign. you're right, this is a very, very important state. how important? both candidates made a point of stopping here during their last campaign rallies. president obama was at a rally of about 15,000 people with bruce springsteen and jay-z preceding him. mitt romney with an airport rally slightly later in the day. both of them needing the estate badly. romney perhaps needing it more
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than president obama does as you look at different paths to the electoral college. take a look at ohio by the numbers. 18 key lector cal votes. the unemployment rate here as kelly mentioned, lower than the national average. 7%. and that has complicated things somewhat as governor romney tries to campaign on a bad economy. obama tries to campaign on progress from the economy. it still is a relatively high unemployment rate. no republican has won the white house without winning ohio. this is key. the polls, at least the nbc wall street journ until maris poll, has the president opening up a decent lead, but a lot of other polls are tighter than that. in 2008, the president won the state 52% to 47%. so the obama campaign feeling a little bit comfortable as we go into this election day, but not too comfortable. >> scott, the very tightness of the polls you're talking about raises the specter of yet another issue, which is the legality challenges that may come out as a result of this, the provisional ballots, the
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absentee, early voting. how likely are we focused who ohio not just a barometer, but we see the same issues we saw in florida. >> it depends on on how close the vote is but if it is within say 50,000 votes, it could trig a lot of issues. and there is an army on stand by of lawyers. there was an issue on the early voting. the democrats won. and there is and ongoing issue with provisional ballots, people who she up at the polls and may not be eligible, so they fill out these provisional ballots and the question is who fills out the questionnaire that accompanies that ballot, that is still tied up in court. they don't start counting those provisional ballots until ten days after the election. so if those provisional ballots come into play, and if we have a
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close race, this could make florida 2000 look like child's lay. >> wow. scott cohn there for us. bright and early. not bright. just early from ohio state university. scott, thank you so much. >> not that we're saying he's not bright. >> yes, he's illuminating the darkness. how about that. >> absolutely. the last thing we want is another 2000. >> what's the one thing investors have been saying. at least we'll have clarity. now the idea that maybe we won't have clarity? doesn't make very many people too happy. still to cork jume, yes, the for the white house is now down finally it to the people that really matter. to the u.s. voters. more than 120 million expected to show up today. >> european investors are holding off on any big moves. equities just edging higher. >> and adecco managed to post
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solid numbers. seeing hiring pick up. still to come on the show, we'll be finding out how wall street votes just after the break.
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we heard from scott the nominees have been going through ohio. how many times do you think they've been through ohio in this election campaign this year? >> i'm going to cheat on this because i know -- >> just tell us. >> at least several dozen. >> it's 80 times they've been in ohio combined. >> remarkable the amount of money being poured in to this state as they crisscross back
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and forth. one million ads? >> 1, 015,000 tv ads combined. >> if that was the number for the entire leaks that would seem high. the fact that it's just june until october. >> june until october. >> all the more reason to keep an eye on news corp earnings later today. cable vagision, as well. but there has been a discernible election boost. one of the few areas of strength in the advertising market. >> not that we complain in the immedia media business about advertising. let's bring in jeff klein. what do you think as far as i know investors are concerned, what have we sort of priced in? what he another expected pricing? >> it's interesting, ross. what we've done is we've taken a look at the market and broken it down to industries that are more favored by republicans and those who are favored by democrats.
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and what we saw for much of this year was the market was pricing in a strong showing by the democrats. maybe status quo outcome. retain the senate and retain the white house. but that was really just up until the time of the first debate. since then, we've seen republican favored industries, these are industries like coal and consumable fuels, managed care company, the big banks, they've actually outperformed sense the time of the first debate, haven't completely closed the gap on the year yet, but produce the it maybe halfway back towards the republicans. but still overall for the year, the market pricing in a pretty good showing for the democrats at the elections today. >> one consistent theme we've heard is that elections are close, once they're decided, markets come well into year end. do you expect that to hold up this time around or will fiscal cliff concerns dominate? >> i think what's unique about this particular post election environment is very contentious lame duck session. we haven't had that many. it seems like we've had a lot
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lately, but looking back over the last 50 year, we've only had a few. and most of of the time we tend to accomplish quite a bit, but the markets tend to not like all the bickering in congress. it's likely to be a divide about what to do about the fiscal cliff. as we come back to the lame duck session, markets will get concerned when we had to deal with the debt ceiling. stock markets fell 13 ps% % in k and that could be what investors are in for in this lame duck session. >> should we expect anything out of the lame duck session? >> it depends on who wins a little bit. i think if you have a status quo election outcome, which is looking increasingly likely, then yes. i think we do get some sort of deal to overt the bulk of the
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fiscal cliff. maybe 1% to 1.5% drag instead of the 3.5 it looks to be now. but if you have a romney win, maybe that's different. maybe we don't get that resolved here the end of this year and it drags out into early next year because of the complexion of washington and what happens in the senate. that could create more uncertainty for the market. so very difficult to say, but we'll know hopefully in the next 24 hours what the complexion in washington will look like and whether we're likely to get a deal it in the lame duck session or not. >> to your point, it does seem especially if any agreement is likely to kick the issue down the road for only 6 or 12 months, we've been talking about the fiscal cliff and about these issues for years and with each temporary extension, the extension itself seems to be getting shorter. it makes the number of times that we have to go on about this issue all the greater. come wednesday the only thing that will change is we'll be talking yet more about what the
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prospects are resolving the fiscal cliff. >> you're right and yet markets have done pretty women. we're up pretty well this year despite global weakness, and here a lackluster profit environment in the u.s. i think there is optimism that the being acrimonious election will turn into a lame duck session where we come to some grand compromise. not just kick the can down the road six months, but maybe six years. i think it's far more likely we get a patch job put in place. and the markets subsequently pull back as we realize will is a long process full of a lot of very difficult decisions. and that's why we believe right now it makes sense for investors to be cautious, raise a little cash and look for the opportunity on the pull back to put some of that money to work and not go in fully invested with the market that's already up 15% this year.
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>> jeff, thanks for that. have a good day. it will be a long one. finally just show you where the dollar is trading, it's been bid up yesterday, a little more mixed today. this is the thing about the currency markets. pretty much anything could happen to the dollar on this election result. no one actually knows becauses's it's so confusing. >> it's been simplified as a strong romney, strong dollar story. but you have to first of all isolate whether it's the dollar moving or another currency and cross check it against the other asset classes. >> except that if obama was risk off, that would actually be dollar positive, right? because if it's risk off, then you buy the dollar. >> and do you do the short term trade or long term trade? >> that's it. the dollar will be one to watch. we don't know what will happen with the election, but keep it tuned to cnbc. "squawk box" is up next.
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good morning. after months of cam beening, polls and punditry, it is finally here. both president hal candidates making a final push through key swing states. >> these last months of our campaign have seen the gathering of strength of a real movement across this country. it's evident in the size of these crowds like this tonight, my goodness, and i understand that there are a few,000 people out doors that couldn't get in, too. >> as long as there is a child anywhere in des moines, anywhere in iowa, anywhere in this country language qui langishing poverty, our work isn't done. our fight for change goes on. plus there's the question of